RE: Risk

Lindsay Oades (
10 Oct 1995 17:14:30 +1000

To Bob Green et al,
thanks for your suggestions. I have thought of the C-P-C cycle in terms of
young people's behaviour which is often perceived by others as risky. Is it
that they do not circumspect, see few options and then act? Is it only after
actually conducting an experiment which is either invalidated (threatening) or
potentially could have been that they come to anticipate that certain actions
may have negative consequence. That is, is a young person who has had sex
without a condom more likely to construe this act as threatening, dangerous,
risky (I'm not sure which word to use) as compared to say a young person who
has not had sex?

Also, could you elaborate upon what you mean by 'a feasability study exploring
individual construal of risk'? Sounds like something I was thinking about just
fifteen minutes ago. I have also been considering these ideas in terms of
identity, and Berzonsky's identity styles. I wonder if you or any other
mailers have any ideas? It seems to me there are many alternatives to the way
I can understand risk.

Lindsay Oades
To: pcp:;
From: on Tue, 10 Oct 1995 4:38 PM
Subject: Risk
RFC Header:Received: by with SMTP;10 Oct 1995 16:38:37 +1000
Received: from ( []) by (8.6.10/8.6.11) with ESMTP id QAA13950; Tue, 10 Oct 1995
16:38:31 +1000
Received: from ( []) by (8.6.10/8.6.9) with ESMTP id QAA26644; Tue, 10 Oct 1995
16:37:32 +1000
Received: by id <>
(8.6.12/ for; Tue, 10 Oct 1995 07:11:59 +0100
Received: from by id
(8.6.12/ for with SMTP; Tue, 10 Oct 1995 07:11:50 +0100
Received: by (5.65/DEC-Ultrix/4.3aas)
id AA17177; Tue, 10 Oct 1995 09:14:57 GMT
To: pcp:;
From: CSU <>
Subject: Risk
X-Originating-Host: []
Message-Id: <1995Oct10.160038-0500@[]>
Date: 10 Oct 1995 16:00:38 -0500
X-Mailer: BWMail for Windows Version 3.0a
Precedence: list

On 5 Oct 1995 Lindsay Oades wrote:

>I have been toying with a definition of risk in PCP terms.
>Threat comes to mind immediately. However I believe that it is
>not synonomous with how we generally use the term risk. Is the
>notion of perceived risk the same as a high level of awareness
>of possible threat- and how does the choice corollary help here?
>I would appreciate any ideas on this one.

A few suggestions:

If risk is framed in terms of judgment/decision making, the C-P-C
(circumspection-preemption-control) cycle may be worth a look. If
sexual risk taking is conceived of as a form of anticipation,
then read most of Kelly and others. The issue might then be one
constructs. Is the supplied construct of risk a consideration
for people or are their actions based on other more personally
meaningful constructs? Risk for some may not even be a major
consideration. Alternatively, why not do a feasibility study and
explore individual conceptions of risk.

I think there might be some value in having a look at:

Kelly G (1969). Ontological Acceleration, in Maher B (ed).
Clinical Psychology and Personality: The Selected Papers of
George Kelly. John Wiley, New York.

You might also find some of the decision making literature

Jungermann, H (1986). Two camps on Rationality in, Arkes H and
Hammond K (eds). Judgment and Decision Making: An
Interdisciplinary Reader. Cambridge University Press,

Kahneman D and Tversky A (1984). On the Psychology of
Prediction, in Kahneman D, Slovic P and Tversky A (eds).
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Kahneman D and Tversky A (1986). Choices, Values and Frames, in
Arkes H and Hammond K (eds). Judgment and Decision Making:
An Interdisciplinary Reader. Cambridge University Press,

Brearley C (1982). Risk and Social Work. Routledgeand Kegan
Paul, London.


Bob Green